Anatomy of an Upset: How Colombia dismantled a World Cup favorite

Germany had been a juggernaut, only appearing to have flaws without either their talismanic striker, Alex Popp, or Lena Oberdorf patrolling midfield. Against Colombia, the Germans had both in the starting XI, and it didn’t matter. Colombia deployed and executed a fascinating game plan to deny Germany the width and spacing they’ve been feasting on in European competition, and their opening match of the World Cup.

Germany delivered a brutal welcome to the World Cup performance in a 6-0 win against Morocco. The two talented young attackers who flank legendary striker Alex Popp, Klara Bühl and Jule Brand, weaved in and out of Morocco’s defense at will, getting off shots and dangerous passes into the box. By the end of the match, Bühl grabbed an assist and a goal to add to Popp’s brace.

To guard against those same wide players running wild, Colombia setup in a 4231 that would almost flatten into a 451 with double coverage on each flank.

In the wide areas, Linda Caicedo stayed disciplined and deep to help Manuela Vanegas, and on the other side Lady Andrade teamed with Carolina Arias. The result was Germany being funneled into the middle of the pitch where Daniela Montoya, Lorena Durango and Catalina Usme were ready to pounce. The result was a combined 111 pressures from the midfield trio.

The wide players did plenty of defensive work too, as did central striker Mayra Ramírez, who was an absolute delight all match (more on her later). Caicedo and Ramirez tied for the highest number of dispossessions in the match (6), and the eight players surrounding the center backs came up with 15 successful tackles and 12 interceptions.

The result completely negated Germany’s build up play as Colombia shepherded them into the center of the pitch by denying them the wide areas or the balls in behind that they covet. The normally free flowing Bühl, Popp and Lina Magull all finished the match with negative on ball value (OBV), with Brand also managing just .11 (with a negative pass rating). The whole team also registered just one through ball and one pass inside the box all match.

The pass map above shows the extent of the problems Colombia created. Germany look like they were only playing with nine players because they were so squished that you can’t see Sara Däbritz and Lina Magull, who are behind Oberdorf and Popp respectively. The result was Germany not being allowed to get the width and spacing they want and are used to, leading to eight of their 14 shots being blocked and just two being on target.

While Germany won the expected goals (xG) battle and look to have been missed out on a result because they underperformed the total they managed (just one goal from 1.5), that’s far from the full story. Popp missed a big chance but did eventually score, finishing the match with a personal xG of 1.19 across six shots. However, Germany’s other eight shots spread across five players were kept to low percentage chances. Oberdorf, Bühl, Magull, Däbritz and Hagel were all kept to .06xG per shot or lower.

Still, fourteen shots from a team as good as Germany is a lot to absorb for ninety minutes, so a dangerous outlet was needed to keep Germany honest. That honesty came in the form of forcing the Germans to cope with an absolutely dominant Mayra Ramírez.

When she seized upon a loose ball or received a pass back to goal she routinely carried the ball through the center of the German defense. Her strength and slick footwork provided a threat Germany had to react to, gave her teammates a chance to breathe or join the attack, and won set pieces.

Manuela Vanegas deserves a lot of shine as well and for a lot more than her stoppage time match winning goal. She was outrageous along the left flank, often having to cope with Jule Brand and her combinations with Germany’s more adventurous fullback (because she’s actually a winger/midfielder), Svenja Huth.

As if that wasn’t enough, she also hit the piledriver of a shot that deflected to Linda Caicedo for that outrageous, completely filthy goal. And Vanegas bagged the winner with a perfect header hit into the ground to keep Merle Frohms from getting a hand on it.

It was a masterclass from Colombia, who even schemed against Germany in-game to concoct their winner, using the rigidity of their zonal marking system to create a free header. Colombia may have shocked the footballing world, but everything they did to contain, disrupt and attack Germany was schemed and executed to perfection.

–André Carlisle